Siarka Tarnobrzeg 0–1 Stomil Olsztyn

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Stomil Olsztyn

10/22/2022

II Liga - East · Round 16Stadion OSiR Wisła

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Siarka Tarnobrzeg35%

×Draw28%

Stomil Olsztyn37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Siarka TarnobrzegExpected goals in this matchStomil Olsztyn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.21

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

1.15

Stomil Olsztyn

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

1.18

creates per match

0.94

1.47

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

1.18

Stomil Olsztyn

0.94

allows per match

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

1.47

Stomil Olsztyn

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Siarka Tarnobrzeg+0.00on par

Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siarka Tarnobrzeg ↓

Stomil Olsztyn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Siarka Tarnobrzeg or draw

63%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg or Stomil Olsztyn

72%

Draw or Stomil Olsztyn

65%

Winning margin

Siarka Tarnobrzeg wins by 2+

14%

Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1+ goals

68%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2+ goals

32%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 3+ goals

11%

Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals

70%

Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals

34%

Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Siarka Tarnobrzeg (draw refunded)

48%

Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siarka Tarnobrzeg at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Stomil Olsztyn away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siarka Tarnobrzeg attack 1.18 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.15

Stomil Olsztyn attack 0.94 + Siarka Tarnobrzeg defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Siarka Tarnobrzeg scores more

35%

level

28%

Stomil Olsztyn scores more

37%

Stomil Olsztyn at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Stomil Olsztyn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff