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Stomil Olsztyn vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz — I Liga 2018

Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
10/25/2021I LigaI Liga · Round 14Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Stomil Olsztyn38%
×Draw28%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stomil Olsztyn
1.22
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 85 away

creates per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.04
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
0.93

allows per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.31
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.40

finishing

Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par
Sandecja Nowy Sącz+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stomil Olsztyn ↓

Sandecja Nowy Sącz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Stomil Olsztyn or draw
66%
Stomil Olsztyn or Sandecja Nowy Sącz
72%
Draw or Sandecja Nowy Sącz
62%

Winning margin

Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
17%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
70%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
34%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
12%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1+ goals
67%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2+ goals
31%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
53%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stomil Olsztyn at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.31 · 68 matches

Sandecja Nowy Sącz away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.40 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stomil Olsztyn attack 1.04 + Sandecja Nowy Sącz defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.22

Sandecja Nowy Sącz attack 0.93 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Stomil Olsztyn scores more
38%
level
28%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz scores more
34%

Stomil Olsztyn at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Stomil Olsztyn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Stomil Olsztyn 1–2 Sandecja Nowy Sącz

Sandecja Nowy Sącz beat Stomil Olsztyn 2-1 in I Liga on October 25, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR in Olsztyn.