Sandecja Nowy Sącz 0–0 Stomil Olsztyn

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Stomil Olsztyn

4/6/2024

II Liga - East · Round 27Stadion ul. Kusocińskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sandecja Nowy Sącz39%

×Draw28%

Stomil Olsztyn33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sandecja Nowy SączExpected goals in this matchStomil Olsztyn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.09

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

1.21

Stomil Olsztyn

1.09

Sandecja Nowy Sącz creates 11% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

1.29

creates per match

0.94

1.24

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

1.29

Stomil Olsztyn

0.94

allows per match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

1.24

Stomil Olsztyn

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sandecja Nowy Sącz+0.00on par

Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandecja Nowy Sącz ↓

Stomil Olsztyn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sandecja Nowy Sącz or draw

67%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz or Stomil Olsztyn

72%

Draw or Stomil Olsztyn

61%

Winning margin

Sandecja Nowy Sącz wins by 2+

17%

Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1+ goals

70%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2+ goals

34%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 3+ goals

12%

Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals

66%

Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals

30%

Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sandecja Nowy Sącz (draw refunded)

54%

Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandecja Nowy Sącz at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.24 · 34 matches

Stomil Olsztyn away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz attack 1.29 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.21

Stomil Olsztyn attack 0.94 + Sandecja Nowy Sącz defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sandecja Nowy Sącz scores more

39%

level

28%

Stomil Olsztyn scores more

33%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sandecja Nowy Sącz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff