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Stomil Olsztyn vs Resovia Rzeszów — I Liga 2018

Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
FT
4 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Resovia Rzeszów
Resovia Rzeszów
9/13/2021I LigaI Liga · Round 8Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Stomil Olsztyn39%
×Draw26%
Resovia Rzeszów34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stomil Olsztyn
1.36
Resovia Rzeszów
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

creates per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.04
Resovia Rzeszów
1.19

allows per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.31
Resovia Rzeszów
1.69

finishing

Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par
Resovia Rzeszów+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stomil Olsztyn ↓

Resovia Rzeszów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Stomil Olsztyn or draw
66%
Stomil Olsztyn or Resovia Rzeszów
74%
Draw or Resovia Rzeszów
61%

Winning margin

Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
18%
Resovia Rzeszów wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
74%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
39%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
16%
Resovia Rzeszów 1+ goals
71%
Resovia Rzeszów 2+ goals
36%
Resovia Rzeszów 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
53%
Resovia Rzeszów (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stomil Olsztyn at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.31 · 68 matches

Resovia Rzeszów away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.69 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stomil Olsztyn attack 1.04 + Resovia Rzeszów defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.36

Resovia Rzeszów attack 1.19 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Stomil Olsztyn scores more
39%
level
26%
Resovia Rzeszów scores more
34%

Stomil Olsztyn at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Stomil Olsztyn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Stomil Olsztyn 4–2 Resovia Rzeszów

Stomil Olsztyn beat Resovia Rzeszów 4-2 in I Liga on September 13, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR in Olsztyn.