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Resovia Rzeszów vs Stomil Olsztyn — I Liga 2018

Resovia Rzeszów
Resovia Rzeszów
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
4/17/2021I LigaI Liga · Round 25Stadion Resovia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Resovia Rzeszów40%
×Draw29%
Stomil Olsztyn32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Resovia Rzeszów
1.19
Stomil Olsztyn
1.03

Resovia Rzeszów creates 16% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

creates per match

Resovia Rzeszów
1.03
Stomil Olsztyn
0.88

allows per match

Resovia Rzeszów
1.18
Stomil Olsztyn
1.35

finishing

Resovia Rzeszów+0.00on par
Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Resovia Rzeszów ↓

Stomil Olsztyn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Resovia Rzeszów or draw
68%
Resovia Rzeszów or Stomil Olsztyn
71%
Draw or Stomil Olsztyn
60%

Winning margin

Resovia Rzeszów wins by 2+
17%
Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Resovia Rzeszów 1+ goals
70%
Resovia Rzeszów 2+ goals
33%
Resovia Rzeszów 3+ goals
12%
Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
64%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
28%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Resovia Rzeszów (draw refunded)
56%
Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Resovia Rzeszów at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.18 · 68 matches

Stomil Olsztyn away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.35 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Resovia Rzeszów attack 1.03 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.19

Stomil Olsztyn attack 0.88 + Resovia Rzeszów defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Resovia Rzeszów scores more
40%
level
29%
Stomil Olsztyn scores more
32%

Resovia Rzeszów at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Resovia Rzeszów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Resovia Rzeszów 1–0 Stomil Olsztyn

Resovia Rzeszów beat Stomil Olsztyn 1-0 in I Liga on April 17, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Resovia in Rzeszów.