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Stomil Olsztyn vs Radomiak Radom — I Liga 2018

Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Radomiak Radom
Radomiak Radom
11/6/2020I LigaI Liga · Round 11Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Stomil Olsztyn33%
×Draw27%
Radomiak Radom40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stomil Olsztyn
1.17
Radomiak Radom
1.30

Radomiak Radom creates 11% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 35 away

creates per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.04
Radomiak Radom
1.29

allows per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.31
Radomiak Radom
1.29

finishing

Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par
Radomiak Radom+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stomil Olsztyn ↓

Radomiak Radom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Stomil Olsztyn or draw
60%
Stomil Olsztyn or Radomiak Radom
73%
Draw or Radomiak Radom
67%

Winning margin

Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
14%
Radomiak Radom wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
69%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
33%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
11%
Radomiak Radom 1+ goals
73%
Radomiak Radom 2+ goals
37%
Radomiak Radom 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
46%
Radomiak Radom (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stomil Olsztyn at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.31 · 68 matches

Radomiak Radom away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.29 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stomil Olsztyn attack 1.04 + Radomiak Radom defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.17

Radomiak Radom attack 1.29 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stomil Olsztyn scores more
33%
level
27%
Radomiak Radom scores more
40%

Radomiak Radom at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Radomiak Radom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Stomil Olsztyn 0–1 Radomiak Radom

Radomiak Radom beat Stomil Olsztyn 1-0 in I Liga on November 6, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR in Olsztyn.