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Radomiak Radom vs Stomil Olsztyn — I Liga 2018

Radomiak Radom
Radomiak Radom
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
5/2/2021I LigaI Liga · Round 28Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Radomiak Radom55%
×Draw26%
Stomil Olsztyn19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radomiak Radom
1.52
Stomil Olsztyn
0.77

Radomiak Radom creates 97% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 68 away

creates per match

Radomiak Radom
1.69
Stomil Olsztyn
0.88

allows per match

Radomiak Radom
0.66
Stomil Olsztyn
1.35

finishing

Radomiak Radom+0.00on par
Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radomiak Radom ↓

Stomil Olsztyn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Radomiak Radom or draw
81%
Radomiak Radom or Stomil Olsztyn
74%
Draw or Stomil Olsztyn
45%

Winning margin

Radomiak Radom wins by 2+
29%
Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Radomiak Radom 1+ goals
78%
Radomiak Radom 2+ goals
45%
Radomiak Radom 3+ goals
20%
Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
54%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
18%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Radomiak Radom (draw refunded)
74%
Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radomiak Radom at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.66 · 35 matches

Stomil Olsztyn away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.35 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radomiak Radom attack 1.69 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.52

Stomil Olsztyn attack 0.88 + Radomiak Radom defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Radomiak Radom scores more
55%
level
26%
Stomil Olsztyn scores more
19%

Radomiak Radom at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Radomiak Radom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Radomiak Radom 1–0 Stomil Olsztyn

Radomiak Radom beat Stomil Olsztyn 1-0 in I Liga on May 2, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza in Radom.