Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Stomil Olsztyn vs Polonia Warszawa — II Liga - East 2019

Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Polonia Warszawa
Polonia Warszawa
2/26/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 20Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Stomil Olsztyn35%
×Draw26%
Polonia Warszawa39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stomil Olsztyn
1.31
Polonia Warszawa
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 17 away

creates per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.49
Polonia Warszawa
1.76

allows per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.06
Polonia Warszawa
1.12

finishing

Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par
Polonia Warszawa+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stomil Olsztyn ↓

Polonia Warszawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Stomil Olsztyn or draw
61%
Stomil Olsztyn or Polonia Warszawa
74%
Draw or Polonia Warszawa
65%

Winning margin

Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
15%
Polonia Warszawa wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
73%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
38%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
14%
Polonia Warszawa 1+ goals
76%
Polonia Warszawa 2+ goals
41%
Polonia Warszawa 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
47%
Polonia Warszawa (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stomil Olsztyn at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.06 · 35 matches

Polonia Warszawa away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stomil Olsztyn attack 1.49 + Polonia Warszawa defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.31

Polonia Warszawa attack 1.76 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Stomil Olsztyn scores more
35%
level
26%
Polonia Warszawa scores more
39%

Polonia Warszawa at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Polonia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Stomil Olsztyn 1–1 Polonia Warszawa

Stomil Olsztyn and Polonia Warszawa drew 1-1 in II Liga - East on February 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR in Olsztyn.