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Polonia Warszawa vs Stomil Olsztyn — II Liga - East 2019

Polonia Warszawa
Polonia Warszawa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
8/1/2022II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 3Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Polonia Warszawa45%
×Draw28%
Stomil Olsztyn27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Warszawa
1.35
Stomil Olsztyn
0.97

Polonia Warszawa creates 39% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

creates per match

Polonia Warszawa
1.59
Stomil Olsztyn
0.94

allows per match

Polonia Warszawa
1.00
Stomil Olsztyn
1.12

finishing

Polonia Warszawa+0.00on par
Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Warszawa ↓

Stomil Olsztyn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Polonia Warszawa or draw
73%
Polonia Warszawa or Stomil Olsztyn
72%
Draw or Stomil Olsztyn
55%

Winning margin

Polonia Warszawa wins by 2+
21%
Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Polonia Warszawa 1+ goals
74%
Polonia Warszawa 2+ goals
39%
Polonia Warszawa 3+ goals
15%
Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
62%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
25%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Polonia Warszawa (draw refunded)
63%
Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Warszawa at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Stomil Olsztyn away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Warszawa attack 1.59 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.35

Stomil Olsztyn attack 0.94 + Polonia Warszawa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Polonia Warszawa scores more
45%
level
28%
Stomil Olsztyn scores more
27%

Polonia Warszawa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Polonia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Polonia Warszawa 1–1 Stomil Olsztyn

Polonia Warszawa and Stomil Olsztyn drew 1-1 in II Liga - East on August 1, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego in Warszawa.