Stomil Olsztyn 1–1 Polonia Lidzbark Warm.

Stomil Olsztyn

FT

1 – 1

Polonia Lidzbark Warm.

4/27/2025

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 27Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Stomil Olsztyn45%

×Draw23%

Polonia Lidzbark Warm.32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stomil OlsztynExpected goals in this matchPolonia Lidzbark Warm.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.47

Stomil Olsztyn

1.77

Polonia Lidzbark Warm.

1.47

Stomil Olsztyn creates 20% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

1.41

creates per match

1.06

1.88

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Stomil Olsztyn

1.41

Polonia Lidzbark Warm.

1.06

allows per match

Stomil Olsztyn

1.88

Polonia Lidzbark Warm.

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Polonia Lidzbark Warm.+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stomil Olsztyn ↓

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Stomil Olsztyn or draw

68%

Stomil Olsztyn or Polonia Lidzbark Warm.

77%

Draw or Polonia Lidzbark Warm.

55%

Winning margin

Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+

24%

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals

83%

Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals

53%

Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals

26%

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 1+ goals

77%

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 2+ goals

43%

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)

58%

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stomil Olsztyn at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stomil Olsztyn attack 1.41 + Polonia Lidzbark Warm. defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.77

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. attack 1.06 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Stomil Olsztyn scores more

45%

level

23%

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. scores more

32%

Stomil Olsztyn at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Stomil Olsztyn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff