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Polonia Lidzbark Warm. vs Stomil Olsztyn — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Polonia Lidzbark Warm.
Polonia Lidzbark Warm.
FT
1 – 1
Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
9/28/2024III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 10Stadion Polonii Lidzbark Warmiński

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Polonia Lidzbark Warm.43%
×Draw25%
Stomil Olsztyn32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Lidzbark Warm.
1.53
Stomil Olsztyn
1.29

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. creates 19% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Polonia Lidzbark Warm.
1.65
Stomil Olsztyn
1.18

allows per match

Polonia Lidzbark Warm.
1.41
Stomil Olsztyn
1.41

finishing

Polonia Lidzbark Warm.+0.00on par
Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. ↓

Stomil Olsztyn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. or draw
68%
Polonia Lidzbark Warm. or Stomil Olsztyn
75%
Draw or Stomil Olsztyn
57%

Winning margin

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. wins by 2+
21%
Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 1+ goals
78%
Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 2+ goals
45%
Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 3+ goals
20%
Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
72%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
37%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. (draw refunded)
57%
Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Stomil Olsztyn away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. attack 1.65 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.53

Stomil Olsztyn attack 1.18 + Polonia Lidzbark Warm. defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. scores more
43%
level
25%
Stomil Olsztyn scores more
32%

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Polonia Lidzbark Warm. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Polonia Lidzbark Warm. vs Stomil Olsztyn

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. and Stomil Olsztyn drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Polonii Lidzbark Warmiński in Lidzbark Warmiński.