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Stomil Olsztyn vs Polonia Bytom — II Liga - East 2019

Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Polonia Bytom
Polonia Bytom
4/12/2024II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 28Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Stomil Olsztyn42%
×Draw27%
Polonia Bytom32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stomil Olsztyn
1.38
Polonia Bytom
1.16

Stomil Olsztyn creates 19% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 35 away

creates per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.49
Polonia Bytom
1.26

allows per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.06
Polonia Bytom
1.26

finishing

Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par
Polonia Bytom+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stomil Olsztyn ↓

Polonia Bytom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Stomil Olsztyn or draw
68%
Stomil Olsztyn or Polonia Bytom
73%
Draw or Polonia Bytom
58%

Winning margin

Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
20%
Polonia Bytom wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
75%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
40%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
16%
Polonia Bytom 1+ goals
69%
Polonia Bytom 2+ goals
32%
Polonia Bytom 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
57%
Polonia Bytom (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stomil Olsztyn at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.06 · 35 matches

Polonia Bytom away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.26 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stomil Olsztyn attack 1.49 + Polonia Bytom defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.38

Polonia Bytom attack 1.26 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Stomil Olsztyn scores more
42%
level
27%
Polonia Bytom scores more
32%

Stomil Olsztyn at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Stomil Olsztyn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stomil Olsztyn vs Polonia Bytom

Polonia Bytom beat Stomil Olsztyn 1-0 in II Liga - East on April 12, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR in Olsztyn.