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Polonia Bytom vs Stomil Olsztyn — II Liga - East 2019

Polonia Bytom
Polonia Bytom
FT
4 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
10/2/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 11Stadion im. Edwarda Szymkowiaka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Polonia Bytom54%
×Draw24%
Stomil Olsztyn22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Bytom
1.75
Stomil Olsztyn
1.04

Polonia Bytom creates 68% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

creates per match

Polonia Bytom
2.38
Stomil Olsztyn
0.94

allows per match

Polonia Bytom
1.15
Stomil Olsztyn
1.12

finishing

Polonia Bytom+0.00on par
Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Bytom ↓

Stomil Olsztyn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Polonia Bytom or draw
78%
Polonia Bytom or Stomil Olsztyn
76%
Draw or Stomil Olsztyn
46%

Winning margin

Polonia Bytom wins by 2+
30%
Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Polonia Bytom 1+ goals
83%
Polonia Bytom 2+ goals
52%
Polonia Bytom 3+ goals
25%
Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
65%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
28%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Polonia Bytom (draw refunded)
71%
Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Bytom at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.15 · 34 matches

Stomil Olsztyn away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Bytom attack 2.38 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.75

Stomil Olsztyn attack 0.94 + Polonia Bytom defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Polonia Bytom scores more
54%
level
24%
Stomil Olsztyn scores more
22%

Polonia Bytom at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Polonia Bytom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Polonia Bytom 4–3 Stomil Olsztyn

Polonia Bytom beat Stomil Olsztyn 4-3 in II Liga - East on October 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion im. Edwarda Szymkowiaka in Bytom.