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Stomil Olsztyn vs Pogoń Siedlce — II Liga - East 2019

Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Pogoń Siedlce
Pogoń Siedlce
4/8/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 26Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Stomil Olsztyn43%
×Draw25%
Pogoń Siedlce32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stomil Olsztyn
1.54
Pogoń Siedlce
1.29

Stomil Olsztyn creates 19% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 86 away

creates per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.49
Pogoń Siedlce
1.52

allows per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.06
Pogoń Siedlce
1.58

finishing

Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par
Pogoń Siedlce+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stomil Olsztyn ↓

Pogoń Siedlce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Stomil Olsztyn or draw
68%
Stomil Olsztyn or Pogoń Siedlce
75%
Draw or Pogoń Siedlce
57%

Winning margin

Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
21%
Pogoń Siedlce wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
79%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
45%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
20%
Pogoń Siedlce 1+ goals
72%
Pogoń Siedlce 2+ goals
37%
Pogoń Siedlce 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
57%
Pogoń Siedlce (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stomil Olsztyn at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.06 · 35 matches

Pogoń Siedlce away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.58 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stomil Olsztyn attack 1.49 + Pogoń Siedlce defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.54

Pogoń Siedlce attack 1.52 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Stomil Olsztyn scores more
43%
level
25%
Pogoń Siedlce scores more
32%

Stomil Olsztyn at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Stomil Olsztyn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Stomil Olsztyn 4–0 Pogoń Siedlce

Stomil Olsztyn beat Pogoń Siedlce 4-0 in II Liga - East on April 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR in Olsztyn.