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Pogoń Siedlce vs Stomil Olsztyn — II Liga - East 2019

Pogoń Siedlce
Pogoń Siedlce
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
9/3/2022II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 9Stadion ROSRRiT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Pogoń Siedlce39%
×Draw27%
Stomil Olsztyn34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pogoń Siedlce
1.30
Stomil Olsztyn
1.18

Pogoń Siedlce creates 10% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 34 away

creates per match

Pogoń Siedlce
1.48
Stomil Olsztyn
0.94

allows per match

Pogoń Siedlce
1.42
Stomil Olsztyn
1.12

finishing

Pogoń Siedlce+0.00on par
Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń Siedlce ↓

Stomil Olsztyn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Pogoń Siedlce or draw
66%
Pogoń Siedlce or Stomil Olsztyn
73%
Draw or Stomil Olsztyn
61%

Winning margin

Pogoń Siedlce wins by 2+
18%
Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Pogoń Siedlce 1+ goals
73%
Pogoń Siedlce 2+ goals
37%
Pogoń Siedlce 3+ goals
14%
Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
69%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
33%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Pogoń Siedlce (draw refunded)
54%
Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń Siedlce at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.42 · 85 matches

Stomil Olsztyn away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń Siedlce attack 1.48 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.30

Stomil Olsztyn attack 0.94 + Pogoń Siedlce defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Pogoń Siedlce scores more
39%
level
27%
Stomil Olsztyn scores more
34%

Pogoń Siedlce at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Pogoń Siedlce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Pogoń Siedlce 0–0 Stomil Olsztyn

Pogoń Siedlce and Stomil Olsztyn drew 0-0 in II Liga - East on September 3, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion ROSRRiT in Siedlce.