Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Stomil Olsztyn vs Pelikan Łowicz — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Pelikan Łowicz
Pelikan Łowicz
10/12/2024III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 12Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Stomil Olsztyn36%
×Draw24%
Pelikan Łowicz39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stomil Olsztyn
1.48
Pelikan Łowicz
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 86 away

creates per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.41
Pelikan Łowicz
1.23

allows per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.88
Pelikan Łowicz
1.56

finishing

Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par
Pelikan Łowicz+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stomil Olsztyn ↓

Pelikan Łowicz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Stomil Olsztyn or draw
61%
Stomil Olsztyn or Pelikan Łowicz
76%
Draw or Pelikan Łowicz
64%

Winning margin

Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
17%
Pelikan Łowicz wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
77%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
43%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
19%
Pelikan Łowicz 1+ goals
79%
Pelikan Łowicz 2+ goals
46%
Pelikan Łowicz 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
48%
Pelikan Łowicz (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stomil Olsztyn at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

Pelikan Łowicz away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.56 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stomil Olsztyn attack 1.41 + Pelikan Łowicz defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.48

Pelikan Łowicz attack 1.23 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Stomil Olsztyn scores more
36%
level
24%
Pelikan Łowicz scores more
39%

Pelikan Łowicz at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Pelikan Łowicz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stomil Olsztyn vs Pelikan Łowicz

Pelikan Łowicz beat Stomil Olsztyn 2-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on October 12, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR in Olsztyn.