Pelikan Łowicz 1–2 Stomil Olsztyn: Result & Stats

Pelikan Łowicz

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Stomil Olsztyn

5/10/2025

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 29Stadion Pelikan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Pelikan Łowicz44%

×Draw25%

Stomil Olsztyn31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pelikan ŁowiczExpected goals in this matchStomil Olsztyn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.22

Pelikan Łowicz

1.52

Stomil Olsztyn

1.22

Pelikan Łowicz creates 25% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 17 away

1.62

creates per match

1.18

1.26

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Pelikan Łowicz

1.62

Stomil Olsztyn

1.18

allows per match

Pelikan Łowicz

1.26

Stomil Olsztyn

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pelikan Łowicz+0.00on par

Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pelikan Łowicz ↓

Stomil Olsztyn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Pelikan Łowicz or draw

69%

Pelikan Łowicz or Stomil Olsztyn

75%

Draw or Stomil Olsztyn

56%

Winning margin

Pelikan Łowicz wins by 2+

22%

Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Pelikan Łowicz 1+ goals

78%

Pelikan Łowicz 2+ goals

45%

Pelikan Łowicz 3+ goals

20%

Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals

70%

Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals

34%

Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Pelikan Łowicz (draw refunded)

59%

Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pelikan Łowicz at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.26 · 86 matches

Stomil Olsztyn away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pelikan Łowicz attack 1.62 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.52

Stomil Olsztyn attack 1.18 + Pelikan Łowicz defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pelikan Łowicz scores more

44%

level

25%

Stomil Olsztyn scores more

31%

Pelikan Łowicz at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pelikan Łowicz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff