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Stomil Olsztyn vs Nieciecza — I Liga 2018

Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Nieciecza
Nieciecza
12/12/2020I LigaI Liga · Round 17Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Stomil Olsztyn30%
×Draw26%
Nieciecza43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stomil Olsztyn
1.13
Nieciecza
1.41

Nieciecza creates 25% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 103 away

creates per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.04
Nieciecza
1.50

allows per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.31
Nieciecza
1.22

finishing

Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par
Nieciecza+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stomil Olsztyn ↓

Nieciecza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Stomil Olsztyn or draw
57%
Stomil Olsztyn or Nieciecza
74%
Draw or Nieciecza
70%

Winning margin

Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
12%
Nieciecza wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
68%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
31%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
11%
Nieciecza 1+ goals
76%
Nieciecza 2+ goals
41%
Nieciecza 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
41%
Nieciecza (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stomil Olsztyn at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.31 · 68 matches

Nieciecza away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.22 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stomil Olsztyn attack 1.04 + Nieciecza defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.13

Nieciecza attack 1.50 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Stomil Olsztyn scores more
30%
level
26%
Nieciecza scores more
43%

Nieciecza at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nieciecza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Stomil Olsztyn 1–4 Nieciecza

Nieciecza beat Stomil Olsztyn 4-1 in I Liga on December 12, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR in Olsztyn.