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Nieciecza vs Stomil Olsztyn — I Liga 2018

Nieciecza
Nieciecza
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
6/13/2021I LigaI Liga · Round 34Stadion Termaliki Bruk-Bet Nieciecza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Nieciecza50%
×Draw26%
Stomil Olsztyn24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nieciecza
1.54
Stomil Olsztyn
0.98

Nieciecza creates 57% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 68 away

creates per match

Nieciecza
1.72
Stomil Olsztyn
0.88

allows per match

Nieciecza
1.08
Stomil Olsztyn
1.35

finishing

Nieciecza+0.00on par
Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nieciecza ↓

Stomil Olsztyn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Nieciecza or draw
76%
Nieciecza or Stomil Olsztyn
74%
Draw or Stomil Olsztyn
50%

Winning margin

Nieciecza wins by 2+
26%
Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Nieciecza 1+ goals
79%
Nieciecza 2+ goals
45%
Nieciecza 3+ goals
20%
Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
62%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
26%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Nieciecza (draw refunded)
68%
Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nieciecza at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.08 · 103 matches

Stomil Olsztyn away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.35 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nieciecza attack 1.72 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.54

Stomil Olsztyn attack 0.88 + Nieciecza defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Nieciecza scores more
50%
level
26%
Stomil Olsztyn scores more
24%

Nieciecza at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Nieciecza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Nieciecza 0–0 Stomil Olsztyn

Nieciecza and Stomil Olsztyn drew 0-0 in I Liga on June 13, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Termaliki Bruk-Bet Nieciecza in Nieciecza.