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Stomil Olsztyn vs ŁKS Łódź — I Liga 2018

Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
ŁKS Łódź
ŁKS Łódź
12/1/2018I LigaI Liga · Round 21Stadion OSiR (Olsztyn)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Stomil Olsztyn30%
×Draw27%
ŁKS Łódź43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stomil Olsztyn
1.09
ŁKS Łódź
1.37

ŁKS Łódź creates 26% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 103 away

creates per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.04
ŁKS Łódź
1.43

allows per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.31
ŁKS Łódź
1.14

finishing

Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par
ŁKS Łódź+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stomil Olsztyn ↓

ŁKS Łódź →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Stomil Olsztyn or draw
57%
Stomil Olsztyn or ŁKS Łódź
73%
Draw or ŁKS Łódź
70%

Winning margin

Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
12%
ŁKS Łódź wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
66%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
30%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
10%
ŁKS Łódź 1+ goals
75%
ŁKS Łódź 2+ goals
40%
ŁKS Łódź 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
41%
ŁKS Łódź (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stomil Olsztyn at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.31 · 68 matches

ŁKS Łódź away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.14 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stomil Olsztyn attack 1.04 + ŁKS Łódź defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.09

ŁKS Łódź attack 1.43 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Stomil Olsztyn scores more
30%
level
27%
ŁKS Łódź scores more
43%

ŁKS Łódź at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "ŁKS Łódź will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stomil Olsztyn vs ŁKS Łódź

Stomil Olsztyn and ŁKS Łódź drew 2-2 in I Liga on December 1, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR (Olsztyn).