ŁKS Łódź 0–2 Stomil Olsztyn: Result & Stats

ŁKS Łódź

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Stomil Olsztyn

3/12/2022

I Liga · Round 23Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

ŁKS Łódź49%

×Draw26%

Stomil Olsztyn25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŁKS ŁódźExpected goals in this matchStomil Olsztyn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

0.98

ŁKS Łódź

1.49

Stomil Olsztyn

0.98

ŁKS Łódź creates 52% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 68 away

1.63

creates per match

0.88

1.07

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

ŁKS Łódź

1.63

Stomil Olsztyn

0.88

allows per match

ŁKS Łódź

1.07

Stomil Olsztyn

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ŁKS Łódź+0.00on par

Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ŁKS Łódź ↓

Stomil Olsztyn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

ŁKS Łódź or draw

75%

ŁKS Łódź or Stomil Olsztyn

74%

Draw or Stomil Olsztyn

51%

Winning margin

ŁKS Łódź wins by 2+

25%

Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

ŁKS Łódź 1+ goals

77%

ŁKS Łódź 2+ goals

44%

ŁKS Łódź 3+ goals

19%

Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals

62%

Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals

26%

Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

ŁKS Łódź (draw refunded)

66%

Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ŁKS Łódź at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.07 · 103 matches

Stomil Olsztyn away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.35 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ŁKS Łódź attack 1.63 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.49

Stomil Olsztyn attack 0.88 + ŁKS Łódź defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

ŁKS Łódź scores more

49%

level

26%

Stomil Olsztyn scores more

25%

ŁKS Łódź at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "ŁKS Łódź will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: ŁKS Łódź 0–2 Stomil Olsztyn

Stomil Olsztyn beat ŁKS Łódź 2-0 in I Liga on March 12, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz in Łódź.

ŁKS Łódź vs Stomil Olsztyn — I Liga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

I Liga: ŁKS Łódź 0–2 Stomil Olsztyn