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Stomil Olsztyn vs Kotwica Kołobrzeg — II Liga - East 2019

Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
10/21/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 14Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Stomil Olsztyn40%
×Draw25%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stomil Olsztyn
1.50
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 34 away

creates per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.49
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.71

allows per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.06
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.50

finishing

Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par
Kotwica Kołobrzeg+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stomil Olsztyn ↓

Kotwica Kołobrzeg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Stomil Olsztyn or draw
65%
Stomil Olsztyn or Kotwica Kołobrzeg
75%
Draw or Kotwica Kołobrzeg
60%

Winning margin

Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
19%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
78%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
44%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
19%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1+ goals
75%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2+ goals
40%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
53%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stomil Olsztyn at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.06 · 35 matches

Kotwica Kołobrzeg away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.50 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stomil Olsztyn attack 1.49 + Kotwica Kołobrzeg defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Kotwica Kołobrzeg attack 1.71 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stomil Olsztyn scores more
40%
level
25%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg scores more
35%

Stomil Olsztyn at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stomil Olsztyn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stomil Olsztyn vs Kotwica Kołobrzeg

Stomil Olsztyn beat Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2-1 in II Liga - East on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR in Olsztyn.