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Kotwica Kołobrzeg vs Stomil Olsztyn — II Liga - East 2019

Kotwica Kołobrzeg
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
7/17/2022II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 1Stadion Miejski im. Sebastiana Karpiniuka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Kotwica Kołobrzeg46%
×Draw29%
Stomil Olsztyn25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.27
Stomil Olsztyn
0.86

Kotwica Kołobrzeg creates 48% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

creates per match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.41
Stomil Olsztyn
0.94

allows per match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg
0.79
Stomil Olsztyn
1.12

finishing

Kotwica Kołobrzeg+0.00on par
Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kotwica Kołobrzeg ↓

Stomil Olsztyn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Kotwica Kołobrzeg or draw
75%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg or Stomil Olsztyn
71%
Draw or Stomil Olsztyn
54%

Winning margin

Kotwica Kołobrzeg wins by 2+
21%
Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1+ goals
72%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2+ goals
36%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 3+ goals
14%
Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
58%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
21%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kotwica Kołobrzeg (draw refunded)
65%
Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kotwica Kołobrzeg at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.79 · 34 matches

Stomil Olsztyn away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg attack 1.41 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.27

Stomil Olsztyn attack 0.94 + Kotwica Kołobrzeg defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kotwica Kołobrzeg scores more
46%
level
29%
Stomil Olsztyn scores more
25%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kotwica Kołobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kotwica Kołobrzeg vs Stomil Olsztyn

Kotwica Kołobrzeg and Stomil Olsztyn drew 0-0 in II Liga - East on July 17, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Sebastiana Karpiniuka in Kołobrzeg.