Stomil Olsztyn 2–0 Jastrzębie: Result & Stats

Stomil Olsztyn

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Jastrzębie

4/16/2023

II Liga - East · Round 27Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Stomil Olsztyn50%

×Draw25%

Jastrzębie25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stomil OlsztynExpected goals in this matchJastrzębie

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.02

Stomil Olsztyn

1.56

Jastrzębie

1.02

Stomil Olsztyn creates 53% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 63 away

1.49

creates per match

0.98

1.06

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Stomil Olsztyn

1.49

Jastrzębie

0.98

allows per match

Stomil Olsztyn

1.06

Jastrzębie

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Jastrzębie+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stomil Olsztyn ↓

Jastrzębie →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Stomil Olsztyn or draw

75%

Stomil Olsztyn or Jastrzębie

75%

Draw or Jastrzębie

50%

Winning margin

Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+

26%

Jastrzębie wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals

79%

Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals

46%

Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals

21%

Jastrzębie 1+ goals

64%

Jastrzębie 2+ goals

27%

Jastrzębie 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)

67%

Jastrzębie (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stomil Olsztyn at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.06 · 35 matches

Jastrzębie away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.62 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stomil Olsztyn attack 1.49 + Jastrzębie defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.56

Jastrzębie attack 0.98 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Stomil Olsztyn scores more

50%

level

25%

Jastrzębie scores more

25%

Stomil Olsztyn at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Stomil Olsztyn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff