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Jastrzębie vs Stomil Olsztyn — II Liga - East 2019

Jastrzębie
Jastrzębie
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
7/31/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 2Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Jastrzębie37%
×Draw29%
Stomil Olsztyn34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jastrzębie
1.16
Stomil Olsztyn
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 34 away

creates per match

Jastrzębie
1.19
Stomil Olsztyn
0.94

allows per match

Jastrzębie
1.25
Stomil Olsztyn
1.12

finishing

Jastrzębie+0.00on par
Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jastrzębie ↓

Stomil Olsztyn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Jastrzębie or draw
66%
Jastrzębie or Stomil Olsztyn
71%
Draw or Stomil Olsztyn
63%

Winning margin

Jastrzębie wins by 2+
16%
Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Jastrzębie 1+ goals
69%
Jastrzębie 2+ goals
32%
Jastrzębie 3+ goals
11%
Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
66%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
30%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Jastrzębie (draw refunded)
52%
Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jastrzębie at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.25 · 63 matches

Stomil Olsztyn away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jastrzębie attack 1.19 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.16

Stomil Olsztyn attack 0.94 + Jastrzębie defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Jastrzębie scores more
37%
level
29%
Stomil Olsztyn scores more
34%

Jastrzębie at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Jastrzębie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Jastrzębie 1–2 Stomil Olsztyn

Stomil Olsztyn beat Jastrzębie 2-1 in II Liga - East on July 31, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Jastrzębie Zdrój.