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Stomil Olsztyn vs Hutnik Kraków — II Liga - East 2019

Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Hutnik Kraków
Hutnik Kraków
3/30/2024II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 26Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Stomil Olsztyn50%
×Draw25%
Hutnik Kraków25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stomil Olsztyn
1.58
Hutnik Kraków
1.05

Stomil Olsztyn creates 50% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 102 away

creates per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.49
Hutnik Kraków
1.04

allows per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.06
Hutnik Kraków
1.67

finishing

Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par
Hutnik Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stomil Olsztyn ↓

Hutnik Kraków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Stomil Olsztyn or draw
75%
Stomil Olsztyn or Hutnik Kraków
75%
Draw or Hutnik Kraków
50%

Winning margin

Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
26%
Hutnik Kraków wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
79%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
47%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
21%
Hutnik Kraków 1+ goals
65%
Hutnik Kraków 2+ goals
28%
Hutnik Kraków 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
66%
Hutnik Kraków (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stomil Olsztyn at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.06 · 35 matches

Hutnik Kraków away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.67 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stomil Olsztyn attack 1.49 + Hutnik Kraków defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Hutnik Kraków attack 1.04 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Stomil Olsztyn scores more
50%
level
25%
Hutnik Kraków scores more
25%

Stomil Olsztyn at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Stomil Olsztyn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stomil Olsztyn vs Hutnik Kraków

Stomil Olsztyn beat Hutnik Kraków 3-0 in II Liga - East on March 30, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR in Olsztyn.