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Hutnik Kraków vs Stomil Olsztyn — II Liga - East 2019

Hutnik Kraków
Hutnik Kraków
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
9/17/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 9Stadion Suche Stawy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Hutnik Kraków41%
×Draw27%
Stomil Olsztyn32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hutnik Kraków
1.33
Stomil Olsztyn
1.13

Hutnik Kraków creates 18% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 34 away

creates per match

Hutnik Kraków
1.55
Stomil Olsztyn
0.94

allows per match

Hutnik Kraków
1.32
Stomil Olsztyn
1.12

finishing

Hutnik Kraków+0.00on par
Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hutnik Kraków ↓

Stomil Olsztyn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Hutnik Kraków or draw
68%
Hutnik Kraków or Stomil Olsztyn
73%
Draw or Stomil Olsztyn
59%

Winning margin

Hutnik Kraków wins by 2+
19%
Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hutnik Kraków 1+ goals
74%
Hutnik Kraków 2+ goals
38%
Hutnik Kraków 3+ goals
15%
Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
68%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
31%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hutnik Kraków (draw refunded)
57%
Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hutnik Kraków at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.32 · 103 matches

Stomil Olsztyn away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hutnik Kraków attack 1.55 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.33

Stomil Olsztyn attack 0.94 + Hutnik Kraków defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hutnik Kraków scores more
41%
level
27%
Stomil Olsztyn scores more
32%

Hutnik Kraków at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hutnik Kraków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Hutnik Kraków 2–1 Stomil Olsztyn

Hutnik Kraków beat Stomil Olsztyn 2-1 in II Liga - East on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Suche Stawy in Kraków.