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Stomil Olsztyn vs Górnik Polkowice — I Liga 2018

Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Górnik Polkowice
Górnik Polkowice
3/20/2022I LigaI Liga · Round 24Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Stomil Olsztyn46%
×Draw25%
Górnik Polkowice29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stomil Olsztyn
1.55
Górnik Polkowice
1.16

Stomil Olsztyn creates 34% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

creates per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.04
Górnik Polkowice
1.00

allows per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.31
Górnik Polkowice
2.06

finishing

Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par
Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stomil Olsztyn ↓

Górnik Polkowice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Stomil Olsztyn or draw
71%
Stomil Olsztyn or Górnik Polkowice
75%
Draw or Górnik Polkowice
54%

Winning margin

Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
23%
Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
79%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
46%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
20%
Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals
69%
Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals
32%
Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
62%
Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stomil Olsztyn at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.31 · 68 matches

Górnik Polkowice away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stomil Olsztyn attack 1.04 + Górnik Polkowice defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.55

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.00 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Stomil Olsztyn scores more
46%
level
25%
Górnik Polkowice scores more
29%

Stomil Olsztyn at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Stomil Olsztyn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Stomil Olsztyn 0–4 Górnik Polkowice

Górnik Polkowice beat Stomil Olsztyn 4-0 in I Liga on March 20, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR in Olsztyn.