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Górnik Polkowice vs Stomil Olsztyn — I Liga 2018

Górnik Polkowice
Górnik Polkowice
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
9/16/2021I LigaI Liga · Round 7Stadion Górnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Górnik Polkowice38%
×Draw30%
Stomil Olsztyn32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Polkowice
1.11
Stomil Olsztyn
1.00

Górnik Polkowice creates 11% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

creates per match

Górnik Polkowice
0.88
Stomil Olsztyn
0.88

allows per match

Górnik Polkowice
1.12
Stomil Olsztyn
1.35

finishing

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par
Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Polkowice ↓

Stomil Olsztyn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Górnik Polkowice or draw
68%
Górnik Polkowice or Stomil Olsztyn
70%
Draw or Stomil Olsztyn
62%

Winning margin

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+
15%
Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals
67%
Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals
30%
Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals
10%
Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
63%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
26%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)
54%
Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Polkowice at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Stomil Olsztyn away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.35 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Polkowice attack 0.88 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.11

Stomil Olsztyn attack 0.88 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Górnik Polkowice scores more
38%
level
30%
Stomil Olsztyn scores more
32%

Górnik Polkowice at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Górnik Polkowice 2–2 Stomil Olsztyn

Górnik Polkowice and Stomil Olsztyn drew 2-2 in I Liga on September 16, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Górnik in Polkowice.