Stomil Olsztyn 0–1 GKS Katowice: Result & Stats

Stomil Olsztyn

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

GKS Katowice

10/6/2018

I Liga · Round 13Stadion OSiR (Olsztyn)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Stomil Olsztyn32%

×Draw27%

GKS Katowice40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stomil OlsztynExpected goals in this matchGKS Katowice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.29

Stomil Olsztyn

1.13

GKS Katowice

1.29

GKS Katowice creates 14% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

1.04

creates per match

1.26

1.31

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Stomil Olsztyn

1.04

GKS Katowice

1.26

allows per match

Stomil Olsztyn

1.31

GKS Katowice

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

GKS Katowice+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stomil Olsztyn ↓

GKS Katowice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Stomil Olsztyn or draw

60%

Stomil Olsztyn or GKS Katowice

73%

Draw or GKS Katowice

68%

Winning margin

Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+

13%

GKS Katowice wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals

68%

Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals

31%

Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals

11%

GKS Katowice 1+ goals

72%

GKS Katowice 2+ goals

37%

GKS Katowice 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)

45%

GKS Katowice (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stomil Olsztyn at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.31 · 68 matches

GKS Katowice away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.22 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stomil Olsztyn attack 1.04 + GKS Katowice defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.13

GKS Katowice attack 1.26 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stomil Olsztyn scores more

32%

level

27%

GKS Katowice scores more

40%

GKS Katowice at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "GKS Katowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff