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GKS Katowice vs Stomil Olsztyn — I Liga 2018

GKS Katowice
GKS Katowice
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
4/24/2019I LigaI Liga · Round 30Stadion ul. Bukowa (Katowice)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

GKS Katowice45%
×Draw27%
Stomil Olsztyn28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GKS Katowice
1.42
Stomil Olsztyn
1.05

GKS Katowice creates 35% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

creates per match

GKS Katowice
1.49
Stomil Olsztyn
0.88

allows per match

GKS Katowice
1.22
Stomil Olsztyn
1.35

finishing

GKS Katowice+0.00on par
Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GKS Katowice ↓

Stomil Olsztyn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

GKS Katowice or draw
72%
GKS Katowice or Stomil Olsztyn
73%
Draw or Stomil Olsztyn
55%

Winning margin

GKS Katowice wins by 2+
22%
Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

GKS Katowice 1+ goals
76%
GKS Katowice 2+ goals
41%
GKS Katowice 3+ goals
17%
Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
65%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
28%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

GKS Katowice (draw refunded)
62%
Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GKS Katowice at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.22 · 68 matches

Stomil Olsztyn away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.35 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GKS Katowice attack 1.49 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.42

Stomil Olsztyn attack 0.88 + GKS Katowice defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

GKS Katowice scores more
45%
level
27%
Stomil Olsztyn scores more
28%

GKS Katowice at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "GKS Katowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: GKS Katowice 1–1 Stomil Olsztyn

GKS Katowice and Stomil Olsztyn drew 1-1 in I Liga on April 24, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion ul. Bukowa (Katowice).