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Stomil Olsztyn vs Bełchatów — I Liga 2018

Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bełchatów
Bełchatów
10/4/2020I LigaI Liga · Round 7Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Stomil Olsztyn42%
×Draw28%
Bełchatów30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stomil Olsztyn
1.25
Bełchatów
1.01

Stomil Olsztyn creates 24% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 34 away

creates per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.04
Bełchatów
0.71

allows per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.31
Bełchatów
1.47

finishing

Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par
Bełchatów+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stomil Olsztyn ↓

Bełchatów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Stomil Olsztyn or draw
70%
Stomil Olsztyn or Bełchatów
72%
Draw or Bełchatów
58%

Winning margin

Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
19%
Bełchatów wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
71%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
36%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
13%
Bełchatów 1+ goals
64%
Bełchatów 2+ goals
27%
Bełchatów 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
58%
Bełchatów (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stomil Olsztyn at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.31 · 68 matches

Bełchatów away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stomil Olsztyn attack 1.04 + Bełchatów defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.25

Bełchatów attack 0.71 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Stomil Olsztyn scores more
42%
level
28%
Bełchatów scores more
30%

Stomil Olsztyn at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Stomil Olsztyn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stomil Olsztyn vs Bełchatów

Stomil Olsztyn and Bełchatów drew 0-0 in I Liga on October 4, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR in Olsztyn.