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Bełchatów vs Stomil Olsztyn — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Bełchatów
Bełchatów
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
5/3/2025III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 28Stadion GKS-u

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bełchatów44%
×Draw24%
Stomil Olsztyn31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bełchatów
1.61
Stomil Olsztyn
1.31

Bełchatów creates 23% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

Bełchatów
1.82
Stomil Olsztyn
1.18

allows per match

Bełchatów
1.45
Stomil Olsztyn
1.41

finishing

Bełchatów+0.00on par
Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bełchatów ↓

Stomil Olsztyn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Bełchatów or draw
69%
Bełchatów or Stomil Olsztyn
76%
Draw or Stomil Olsztyn
56%

Winning margin

Bełchatów wins by 2+
23%
Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bełchatów 1+ goals
80%
Bełchatów 2+ goals
48%
Bełchatów 3+ goals
22%
Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
73%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
38%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bełchatów (draw refunded)
59%
Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bełchatów at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.45 · 51 matches

Stomil Olsztyn away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bełchatów attack 1.82 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.61

Stomil Olsztyn attack 1.18 + Bełchatów defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bełchatów scores more
44%
level
24%
Stomil Olsztyn scores more
31%

Bełchatów at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bełchatów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bełchatów vs Stomil Olsztyn

Bełchatów and Stomil Olsztyn drew 2-2 in III Liga - Group 1 on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion GKS-u in Bełchatów.