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Stolem Gniewino vs Pogoń Szczecin II — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Stolem Gniewino
Stolem Gniewino
FT
0 – 3
Pogoń Szczecin II
Pogoń Szczecin II
3/23/2024III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 22Stadion GOTiS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Stolem Gniewino34%
×Draw24%
Pogoń Szczecin II42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stolem Gniewino
1.41
Pogoń Szczecin II
1.58

Pogoń Szczecin II creates 12% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 104 away

creates per match

Stolem Gniewino
1.20
Pogoń Szczecin II
1.58

allows per match

Stolem Gniewino
1.59
Pogoń Szczecin II
1.61

finishing

Stolem Gniewino+0.00on par
Pogoń Szczecin II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stolem Gniewino ↓

Pogoń Szczecin II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Stolem Gniewino or draw
58%
Stolem Gniewino or Pogoń Szczecin II
76%
Draw or Pogoń Szczecin II
66%

Winning margin

Stolem Gniewino wins by 2+
16%
Pogoń Szczecin II wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Stolem Gniewino 1+ goals
76%
Stolem Gniewino 2+ goals
41%
Stolem Gniewino 3+ goals
17%
Pogoń Szczecin II 1+ goals
79%
Pogoń Szczecin II 2+ goals
47%
Pogoń Szczecin II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Stolem Gniewino (draw refunded)
45%
Pogoń Szczecin II (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stolem Gniewino at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.59 · 49 matches

Pogoń Szczecin II away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.61 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stolem Gniewino attack 1.20 + Pogoń Szczecin II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.41

Pogoń Szczecin II attack 1.58 + Stolem Gniewino defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Stolem Gniewino scores more
34%
level
24%
Pogoń Szczecin II scores more
42%

Pogoń Szczecin II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Pogoń Szczecin II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stolem Gniewino vs Pogoń Szczecin II

Pogoń Szczecin II beat Stolem Gniewino 3-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion GOTiS in Gniewino.