Pogoń Szczecin II 2–0 Stolem Gniewino

Pogoń Szczecin II

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Stolem Gniewino

8/27/2023

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 5Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Pogoń Szczecin II60%

×Draw21%

Stolem Gniewino19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pogoń Szczecin IIExpected goals in this matchStolem Gniewino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.11

Pogoń Szczecin II

2.12

Stolem Gniewino

1.11

Pogoń Szczecin II creates 91% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 51 away

2.32

creates per match

0.88

1.34

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Pogoń Szczecin II

2.32

Stolem Gniewino

0.88

allows per match

Pogoń Szczecin II

1.34

Stolem Gniewino

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pogoń Szczecin II+0.00on par

Stolem Gniewino+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń Szczecin II ↓

Stolem Gniewino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Pogoń Szczecin II or draw

81%

Pogoń Szczecin II or Stolem Gniewino

79%

Draw or Stolem Gniewino

40%

Winning margin

Pogoń Szczecin II wins by 2+

37%

Stolem Gniewino wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Pogoń Szczecin II 1+ goals

88%

Pogoń Szczecin II 2+ goals

62%

Pogoń Szczecin II 3+ goals

35%

Stolem Gniewino 1+ goals

67%

Stolem Gniewino 2+ goals

30%

Stolem Gniewino 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Pogoń Szczecin II (draw refunded)

76%

Stolem Gniewino (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń Szczecin II at home — creates 2.32, concedes 1.34 · 99 matches

Stolem Gniewino away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.92 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń Szczecin II attack 2.32 + Stolem Gniewino defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.12

Stolem Gniewino attack 0.88 + Pogoń Szczecin II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Pogoń Szczecin II scores more

60%

level

21%

Stolem Gniewino scores more

19%

Pogoń Szczecin II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Pogoń Szczecin II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff