Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Stolem Gniewino vs Noteć Czarnków — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Stolem Gniewino
Stolem Gniewino
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Noteć Czarnków
Noteć Czarnków
11/4/2023III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 15Stadion GOTiS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Stolem Gniewino37%
×Draw24%
Noteć Czarnków39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stolem Gniewino
1.51
Noteć Czarnków
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 51 away

creates per match

Stolem Gniewino
1.20
Noteć Czarnków
1.55

allows per match

Stolem Gniewino
1.59
Noteć Czarnków
1.82

finishing

Stolem Gniewino+0.00on par
Noteć Czarnków+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stolem Gniewino ↓

Noteć Czarnków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Stolem Gniewino or draw
61%
Stolem Gniewino or Noteć Czarnków
76%
Draw or Noteć Czarnków
63%

Winning margin

Stolem Gniewino wins by 2+
18%
Noteć Czarnków wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Stolem Gniewino 1+ goals
78%
Stolem Gniewino 2+ goals
44%
Stolem Gniewino 3+ goals
19%
Noteć Czarnków 1+ goals
79%
Noteć Czarnków 2+ goals
46%
Noteć Czarnków 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Stolem Gniewino (draw refunded)
48%
Noteć Czarnków (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stolem Gniewino at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.59 · 49 matches

Noteć Czarnków away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.82 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stolem Gniewino attack 1.20 + Noteć Czarnków defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.51

Noteć Czarnków attack 1.55 + Stolem Gniewino defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Stolem Gniewino scores more
37%
level
24%
Noteć Czarnków scores more
39%

Noteć Czarnków at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Noteć Czarnków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Stolem Gniewino 2–1 Noteć Czarnków

Stolem Gniewino beat Noteć Czarnków 2-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion GOTiS in Gniewino.