Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Noteć Czarnków vs Stolem Gniewino — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Noteć Czarnków
Noteć Czarnków
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Stolem Gniewino
Stolem Gniewino
5/25/2024III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 32Stadion Noteć Czarnków

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Noteć Czarnków55%
×Draw22%
Stolem Gniewino24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Noteć Czarnków
1.98
Stolem Gniewino
1.23

Noteć Czarnków creates 61% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

creates per match

Noteć Czarnków
2.04
Stolem Gniewino
0.88

allows per match

Noteć Czarnków
1.57
Stolem Gniewino
1.92

finishing

Noteć Czarnków+0.00on par
Stolem Gniewino+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Noteć Czarnków ↓

Stolem Gniewino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Noteć Czarnków or draw
76%
Noteć Czarnków or Stolem Gniewino
78%
Draw or Stolem Gniewino
45%

Winning margin

Noteć Czarnków wins by 2+
32%
Stolem Gniewino wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Noteć Czarnków 1+ goals
86%
Noteć Czarnków 2+ goals
59%
Noteć Czarnków 3+ goals
31%
Stolem Gniewino 1+ goals
71%
Stolem Gniewino 2+ goals
35%
Stolem Gniewino 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Noteć Czarnków (draw refunded)
70%
Stolem Gniewino (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Noteć Czarnków at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.57 · 51 matches

Stolem Gniewino away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.92 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Noteć Czarnków attack 2.04 + Stolem Gniewino defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.98

Stolem Gniewino attack 0.88 + Noteć Czarnków defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Noteć Czarnków scores more
55%
level
22%
Stolem Gniewino scores more
24%

Noteć Czarnków at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Noteć Czarnków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Noteć Czarnków vs Stolem Gniewino

Noteć Czarnków beat Stolem Gniewino 3-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Noteć Czarnków in Czarnków.