Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Stoke City W vs Loughborough Lightning — FA Women's Cup 2019

Stoke City W
Stoke City W
FT
4 – 2
Loughborough Lightning
Loughborough Lightning
12/5/2024FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundHolywell Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Stoke City W68%
×Draw16%
Loughborough Lightning16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stoke City W
2.98
Loughborough Lightning
1.43

Stoke City W creates 108% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Stoke City W
4.25
Loughborough Lightning
1.86

allows per match

Stoke City W
1.00
Loughborough Lightning
1.71

finishing

Stoke City W+0.00on par
Loughborough Lightning+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City W ↓

Loughborough Lightning →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Stoke City W or draw
84%
Stoke City W or Loughborough Lightning
84%
Draw or Loughborough Lightning
32%

Winning margin

Stoke City W wins by 2+
48%
Loughborough Lightning wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Stoke City W 1+ goals
95%
Stoke City W 2+ goals
79%
Stoke City W 3+ goals
56%
Loughborough Lightning 1+ goals
76%
Loughborough Lightning 2+ goals
42%
Loughborough Lightning 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Stoke City W (draw refunded)
81%
Loughborough Lightning (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City W at home — creates 4.25, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Loughborough Lightning away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City W attack 4.25 + Loughborough Lightning defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.98

Loughborough Lightning attack 1.86 + Stoke City W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Stoke City W scores more
68%
level
16%
Loughborough Lightning scores more
16%

Stoke City W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Stoke City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stoke City W vs Loughborough Lightning

Stoke City W beat Loughborough Lightning 4-2 in FA Women's Cup on December 5, 2024.

The match was played at Holywell Park Stadium in Loughborough, Leicestershire.