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Loughborough Lightning vs Stoke City W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Loughborough Lightning
Loughborough Lightning
FT
1 – 3
Stoke City W
Stoke City W
11/27/2022FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundLoughborough University Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Loughborough Lightning71%
×Draw16%
Stoke City W13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Loughborough Lightning
2.71
Stoke City W
1.08

Loughborough Lightning creates 151% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Loughborough Lightning
2.75
Stoke City W
1.17

allows per match

Loughborough Lightning
1.00
Stoke City W
2.67

finishing

Loughborough Lightning+0.00on par
Stoke City W+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loughborough Lightning ↓

Stoke City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Loughborough Lightning or draw
87%
Loughborough Lightning or Stoke City W
84%
Draw or Stoke City W
29%

Winning margin

Loughborough Lightning wins by 2+
50%
Stoke City W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Loughborough Lightning 1+ goals
93%
Loughborough Lightning 2+ goals
75%
Loughborough Lightning 3+ goals
50%
Stoke City W 1+ goals
66%
Stoke City W 2+ goals
29%
Stoke City W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Loughborough Lightning (draw refunded)
85%
Stoke City W (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loughborough Lightning at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Stoke City W away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loughborough Lightning attack 2.75 + Stoke City W defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.71

Stoke City W attack 1.17 + Loughborough Lightning defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Loughborough Lightning scores more
71%
level
16%
Stoke City W scores more
13%

Loughborough Lightning at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Loughborough Lightning will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Loughborough Lightning vs Stoke City W

Stoke City W beat Loughborough Lightning 3-1 in FA Women's Cup on November 27, 2022.

The match was played at Loughborough University Football Stadium in Loughborough, Leicestershire.