Stoke City 1–2 West Brom: Result & Stats

Stoke City

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

West Brom

L. Koumas 29'

J. Maja 31'

K. Ahearne-Grant 18'

8/24/2024

Championship · Round 3bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Stoke City38%

×Draw28%

West Brom35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stoke CityExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.17

Stoke City

1.23

West Brom

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 38 away

1.27

creates per match

1.19

1.15

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Stoke City

1.27

West Brom

1.19

allows per match

Stoke City

1.15

West Brom

1.19

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Stoke City+0.17scores more

West Brom-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw

65%

Stoke City or West Brom

72%

Draw or West Brom

62%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+

16%

West Brom wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals

71%

Stoke City 2+ goals

35%

Stoke City 3+ goals

13%

West Brom 1+ goals

69%

West Brom 2+ goals

33%

West Brom 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)

52%

West Brom (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.19 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.27 + West Brom defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.23

West Brom attack 1.19 + Stoke City defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Stoke City scores more

38%

level

28%

West Brom scores more

35%

Stoke City at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

K. Ahearne-Grant

West Brom · M

7.7

Match Events

18'

K. Ahearne-Grant↳ T. Fellows

29'

L. Koumas↳ M. Manhoef

31'

J. Maja↳ T. Fellows

41'

Josh Laurent

45+2'

Jayson Molumby

60'

A. Moran← J. Tchamadeu

67'

Alex Palmer

69'

J. Wallace← T. Fellows

69'

G. Diangana← K. Ahearne-Grant

70'

R. Mmaee← Bae Jun-Ho

70'

W. Burger← J. Thompson

81'

N. Ennis← M. Manhoef

82'

L. Baker← L. Gooch

82'

L. Dobbin← G. Diangana

85'

G. Frabotta← J. Swift

86'

O. Diakité← J. Molumby

90'

Lewis Koumas

90+3'

Darnell Furlong

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StokeWest

Overview

49%Possession51%

7Total Shots8

1.79Expected Goals (xG)1.53

2Corners5

12Fouls11

Shots

7Total Shots8

2On Target5

5Off Target3

0Blocked0

4Inside Box7

3Outside Box1

Passing

49%Possession51%

454Total Passes487

383Accurate Passes395

84%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

-0.35Goals Prevented-0.35

Discipline

12Fouls11

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides3

Championship: Stoke City 1–2 West Brom

West Brom beat Stoke City 2-1 in Championship on August 24, 2024.

Goals: K. Ahearne-Grant (18'), L. Koumas (29'), J. Maja (31').

West Brom controlled possession (51%) and registered 8 shots to 7.

The match was played at bet365 Stadium in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.

Stoke City vs West Brom — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Stoke City 1–2 West Brom