Stoke City 2–2 West Brom: Result & Stats

Stoke City

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

West Brom

André Vidigal 78'

M. Manhoef 68'

J. Wallace 57'

M. Johnston 24'

4/6/2024

Championship · Round 41bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Stoke City38%

×Draw28%

West Brom34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stoke CityExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.17

Stoke City

1.25

West Brom

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 40 away

1.30

creates per match

1.19

1.15

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Stoke City

1.30

West Brom

1.19

allows per match

Stoke City

1.15

West Brom

1.21

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Stoke City+0.16scores more

West Brom-0.06on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw

66%

Stoke City or West Brom

72%

Draw or West Brom

62%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+

17%

West Brom wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals

71%

Stoke City 2+ goals

36%

Stoke City 3+ goals

13%

West Brom 1+ goals

69%

West Brom 2+ goals

33%

West Brom 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)

53%

West Brom (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.15 · 28 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.21 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.30 + West Brom defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.25

West Brom attack 1.19 + Stoke City defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Stoke City scores more

38%

level

28%

West Brom scores more

34%

Stoke City at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

42

M. Manhoef

Stoke City · M

7.9

Match Events

24'

M. Johnston↳ G. Diangana

26'

Grady Diangana

55'

T. Campbell← R. Mmaee

57'

J. Wallace

61'

André Vidigal← S. Hakšabanović

61'

W. Burger← E. Stevens

68'

M. Manhoef↳ K. Hoever

70'

A. Reach← M. Johnston

70'

Y. M'Vila← O. Yokuşlu

78'

Yann M'Vila

78'

André Vidigal

79'

M. Phillips← J. Wallace

83'

M. Léris← M. Manhoef

87'

A. Weimann← A. Mowatt

87'

T. Fellows← B. Thomas-Asante

89'

Jordan Thompson

90'

Wouter Burger

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StokeWest

Overview

57%Possession43%

18Total Shots9

2.20Expected Goals (xG)1.35

5Corners7

8Fouls8

Shots

18Total Shots9

7On Target2

5Off Target2

6Blocked5

13Inside Box4

5Outside Box5

Passing

57%Possession43%

511Total Passes378

434Accurate Passes288

85%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls8

2Yellow Cards2

4Offsides4

Championship: Stoke City 2–2 West Brom

Stoke City and West Brom drew 2-2 in Championship on April 6, 2024.

Goals: M. Johnston (24'), J. Wallace (57'), M. Manhoef (68'), André Vidigal (78').

Stoke City controlled possession (57%) and registered 18 shots to 9.

The match was played at bet365 Stadium in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.

Stoke City vs West Brom — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Stoke City 2–2 West Brom