Stoke City 0–2 West Brom: Result & Stats

Stoke City

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

West Brom

11/4/2019

Championship · Round 15bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Stoke City38%

×Draw28%

West Brom34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stoke CityExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.17

Stoke City

1.25

West Brom

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 40 away

1.30

creates per match

1.19

1.15

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Stoke City

1.30

West Brom

1.19

allows per match

Stoke City

1.15

West Brom

1.21

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Stoke City+0.16scores more

West Brom-0.06on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw

66%

Stoke City or West Brom

72%

Draw or West Brom

62%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+

17%

West Brom wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals

71%

Stoke City 2+ goals

36%

Stoke City 3+ goals

13%

West Brom 1+ goals

69%

West Brom 2+ goals

33%

West Brom 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)

53%

West Brom (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.15 · 28 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.21 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.30 + West Brom defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.25

West Brom attack 1.19 + Stoke City defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Stoke City scores more

38%

level

28%

West Brom scores more

34%

Stoke City at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff