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Stoke City vs Watford — Championship 2018

Stoke City
Stoke City
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Watford
Watford
André Vidigal 53'
8/19/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 3bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 55+ matches

Stoke City40%
×Draw28%
Watford32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stoke City
1.27
Watford
1.11

Stoke City creates 14% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 60 away

creates per match

Stoke City
1.17
Watford
1.01

allows per match

Stoke City
1.22
Watford
1.38

finishing

Stoke City+0.18scores more
Watford-0.01on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Watford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw
68%
Stoke City or Watford
72%
Draw or Watford
60%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+
18%
Watford wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals
72%
Stoke City 2+ goals
36%
Stoke City 3+ goals
14%
Watford 1+ goals
67%
Watford 2+ goals
30%
Watford 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)
55%
Watford (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.22 · 55 matches

Watford away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.38 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.17 + Watford defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.27

Watford attack 1.01 + Stoke City defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stoke City scores more
40%
level
28%
Watford scores more
32%

Stoke City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
W. HoedtWatfordWatford · D
7.9

Match Events

29'
Luke McNally
43'
Y. Asprilla← J. Morris
46'
I. Koné← T. Dele-Bashiru
52'
Wesley Moraes
53'
André Vidigal↳ K. Hoever
60'
Ismael Koné
61'
G. Chakvetadze← I. Louza
61'
E. Kayembe← J. Livermore
69'
J. Tymon← M. Rose
72'
T. Ince← Matheus Martins
77'
Jordan Thompson
80'
Chiquinho← André Vidigal
80'
R. Mmaee← Wesley
80'
B. Pearson← J. Thompson
83'
Daniel Johnson

Possession

42%Stoke

Shots

13Stoke

Pass accuracy

46%Stoke

Statistics

StokeWatford
Overview
42%Possession58%
13Total Shots10
0.95Expected Goals (xG)0.71
7Corners2
21Fouls10
Shots
13Total Shots10
2On Target3
4Off Target4
7Blocked3
7Inside Box4
6Outside Box6
Passing
42%Possession58%
316Total Passes460
217Accurate Passes376
69%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
21Fouls10
4Yellow Cards1
0Offsides3

Match Recap: Stoke City vs Watford

Stoke City beat Watford 1-0 in Championship on August 19, 2023.

Goals: André Vidigal (53').

Watford controlled possession (58%) and registered 10 shots to 13.

The match was played at bet365 Stadium in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.