Stoke City 0–4 Watford: Result & Stats

Stoke City

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Watford

V. Bayo 84'

K. Davis 78'

K. Sema 64'

I. Sarr 12'

10/2/2022

Championship · Round 12bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 55+ matches

Stoke City40%

×Draw28%

Watford32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stoke CityExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.11

Stoke City

1.27

Watford

1.11

Stoke City creates 14% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 60 away

1.17

creates per match

1.01

1.22

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Stoke City

1.17

Watford

1.01

allows per match

Stoke City

1.22

Watford

1.38

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Stoke City+0.18scores more

Watford-0.01on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw

68%

Stoke City or Watford

72%

Draw or Watford

60%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+

18%

Watford wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals

72%

Stoke City 2+ goals

36%

Stoke City 3+ goals

14%

Watford 1+ goals

67%

Watford 2+ goals

30%

Watford 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)

55%

Watford (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.22 · 55 matches

Watford away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.38 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.17 + Watford defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.27

Watford attack 1.01 + Stoke City defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stoke City scores more

40%

level

28%

Watford scores more

32%

Stoke City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

H. Kamara

Watford · D

8.7

Match Events

12'

14'

32'

48'

52'

59'

I. Louza← Y. Asprilla

64'

Ken Sema

64'

K. Sema

69'

Francisco Sierralta

72'

T. Campbell← D. Gayle

77'

H. Clarke← D. Sterling

78'

K. Davis↳ I. Sarr

81'

V. Bayo← I. Sarr

84'

V. Bayo↳ I. Louza

87'

J. Hungbo← K. Sema

87'

D. Gosling← K. Davis

90+3'

Hamza Choudhury

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StokeWatford

Overview

49%Possession51%

15Total Shots16

6Corners6

10Fouls15

Shots

15Total Shots16

2On Target9

8Off Target5

5Blocked2

11Inside Box15

4Outside Box1

Passing

49%Possession51%

355Total Passes371

233Accurate Passes266

66%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls15

2Yellow Cards5

0Offsides4