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Stoke City vs Watford — Premier League 2026

Stoke City
Stoke City
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Watford
Watford
1/31/2018Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 25bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Stoke City47%
×Draw25%
Watford28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stoke City
1.55
Watford
1.14

Stoke City creates 36% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 112 away

creates per match

Stoke City
1.31
Watford
0.96

allows per match

Stoke City
1.31
Watford
1.79

finishing

Stoke City+0.00on par
Watford+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Watford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw
72%
Stoke City or Watford
75%
Draw or Watford
53%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+
24%
Watford wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals
79%
Stoke City 2+ goals
46%
Stoke City 3+ goals
20%
Watford 1+ goals
68%
Watford 2+ goals
32%
Watford 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)
63%
Watford (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.31 · 72 matches

Watford away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.79 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.31 + Watford defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.55

Watford attack 0.96 + Stoke City defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Stoke City scores more
47%
level
25%
Watford scores more
28%

Stoke City at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
R. ShawcrossStoke CityStoke City · D
7.7

Match Events

18'
Christian Kabasele
21'
Charlie Adam
35'
Moritz Bauer
47'
José Holebas
52'
Mame Biram Diouf
59'
Erik Pieters
60'
P. Crouch← C. Adam
68'
A. Gray← Richarlison
72'
R. Pereyra← T. Cleverley
85'
S. Berahino← M. Diouf
88'
A. Carrillo← Deulofeu
90'
Abdoulaye Doucouré

Possession

48%Stoke

Shots

11Stoke

Pass accuracy

48%Stoke

Statistics

StokeWatford
Overview
48%Possession52%
11Total Shots11
2Corners6
12Fouls12
Shots
11Total Shots11
4On Target2
4Off Target5
3Blocked4
9Inside Box7
2Outside Box4
Passing
48%Possession52%
279Total Passes300
161Accurate Passes185
58%Pass Accuracy62%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls12
4Yellow Cards3
5Offsides0

Premier League: Stoke City 0–0 Watford

Stoke City and Watford drew 0-0 in Premier League on January 31, 2018.

Watford controlled possession (52%) and registered 11 shots to 11.

The match was played at bet365 Stadium in Stoke.