Stoke City 2–0 Watford: Result & Stats

Stoke City

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Watford

P. Crouch 49'

R. Shawcross 45+3'

1/3/2017

Premier League · Round 20bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Stoke City47%

×Draw25%

Watford28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stoke CityExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.14

Stoke City

1.55

Watford

1.14

Stoke City creates 36% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 112 away

1.31

creates per match

0.96

1.31

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Stoke City

1.31

Watford

0.96

allows per match

Stoke City

1.31

Watford

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stoke City+0.00on par

Watford+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw

72%

Stoke City or Watford

75%

Draw or Watford

53%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+

24%

Watford wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals

79%

Stoke City 2+ goals

46%

Stoke City 3+ goals

20%

Watford 1+ goals

68%

Watford 2+ goals

32%

Watford 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)

63%

Watford (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.31 · 72 matches

Watford away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.79 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.31 + Watford defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.55

Watford attack 0.96 + Stoke City defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Stoke City scores more

47%

level

25%

Watford scores more

28%

Stoke City at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

C. Adam

Stoke City · M

8.2

Match Events

19'

Mame Biram Diouf

45+3'

R. Shawcross↳ C. Adam

46'

O. Ighalo← V. Behrami

49'

P. Crouch↳ C. Adam

68'

I. Afellay← M. Diouf

69'

J. Sinclair← A. Guédioura

76'

81'

84'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StokeWatford

Overview

54%Possession46%

16Total Shots9

7Corners6

10Fouls15

Shots

16Total Shots9

5On Target2

7Off Target4

4Blocked3

11Inside Box5

5Outside Box4

Passing

54%Possession46%

399Total Passes352

296Accurate Passes237

74%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides0