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Stoke City vs Norwich — Championship 2025

Stoke City
Stoke City
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Norwich
Norwich
S. Thomas 48'
J. Makama 26'
9/27/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 7Bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Stoke City40%
×Draw28%
Norwich33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stoke City
1.27
Norwich
1.13

Stoke City creates 12% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 25 away

creates per match

Stoke City
1.29
Norwich
1.27

allows per match

Stoke City
0.98
Norwich
1.24

finishing

Stoke City+0.27scores more
Norwich+0.13scores more

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Norwich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw
67%
Stoke City or Norwich
72%
Draw or Norwich
60%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+
18%
Norwich wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals
72%
Stoke City 2+ goals
36%
Stoke City 3+ goals
14%
Norwich 1+ goals
68%
Norwich 2+ goals
31%
Norwich 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)
55%
Norwich (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.98 · 18 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.24 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.29 + Norwich defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Norwich attack 1.27 + Stoke City defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stoke City scores more
40%
level
28%
Norwich scores more
33%

Stoke City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
J. StaceyNorwichNorwich · D
8.0

Match Events

26'
J. Makama↳ J. Stacey
48'
S. Thomas
54'
A. Crnac← J. Makama
68'
J. Schlupp← O. Schwartau
74'
Harry Darling
76'
Kenny McLean
82'
L. Cisse← M. Manhoef
89'
S. N'Zonzi← T. Rigo
89'
M. Topic← L. Gibbs
90+2'
Kellen Fisher

Possession

58%Stoke

Shots

23Stoke

Pass accuracy

54%Stoke

Statistics

StokeNorwich
Overview
58%Possession42%
23Total Shots6
1.85Expected Goals (xG)1.32
12Corners1
11Fouls9
Shots
23Total Shots6
6On Target3
8Off Target1
9Blocked2
14Inside Box6
9Outside Box0
Passing
58%Possession42%
454Total Passes344
381Accurate Passes252
84%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
0.55Goals Prevented0.55
Discipline
11Fouls9
0Yellow Cards3
3Offsides1

Championship: Stoke City 1–1 Norwich

Stoke City and Norwich drew 1-1 in Championship on September 27, 2025.

Goals: J. Makama (26'), S. Thomas (48').

Stoke City controlled possession (58%) and registered 23 shots to 6.

The match was played at Bet365 Stadium in Stoke on Trent.