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Stoke City vs Norwich — Championship 2025

Stoke City
Stoke City
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Norwich
Norwich
M. Manhoef 45+6'
A. Crnac 45'
10/19/2024ChampionshipChampionship · Round 10bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Stoke City38%
×Draw27%
Norwich35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stoke City
1.25
Norwich
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 27 away

creates per match

Stoke City
1.28
Norwich
1.32

allows per match

Stoke City
1.07
Norwich
1.23

finishing

Stoke City+0.17scores more
Norwich+0.12scores more

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Norwich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw
65%
Stoke City or Norwich
73%
Draw or Norwich
62%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+
16%
Norwich wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals
71%
Stoke City 2+ goals
36%
Stoke City 3+ goals
13%
Norwich 1+ goals
70%
Norwich 2+ goals
34%
Norwich 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)
52%
Norwich (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.07 · 20 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.23 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.28 + Norwich defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.25

Norwich attack 1.32 + Stoke City defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Stoke City scores more
38%
level
27%
Norwich scores more
35%

Stoke City at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
K. McLeanNorwichNorwich · M
7.5

Match Events

43'
O. Schwartau← M. Núñez
45+8'
Callum Doyle
45+3'
J. Thompson← W. Burger
45'
A. Crnac↳ J. Sargent
45+6'
M. Manhoef↳ E. Stevens
65'
A. Forson← A. Crnac
65'
E. Marcondes← A. Ben Slimane
79'
J. Stacey← K. Fisher
80'
B. Chrisene← J. Córdoba
85'
André Vidigal← L. Koumas
90+3'
J. Tchamadeu← Bae Jun-Ho
90+2'
T. Seko← M. Manhoef

Possession

39%Stoke

Shots

14Stoke

Pass accuracy

48%Stoke

Statistics

StokeNorwich
Overview
39%Possession61%
14Total Shots12
1.25Expected Goals (xG)1.52
8Corners7
7Fouls9
Shots
14Total Shots12
5On Target4
5Off Target3
4Blocked5
12Inside Box9
2Outside Box3
Passing
39%Possession61%
335Total Passes548
261Accurate Passes469
78%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
0.10Goals Prevented0.10
Discipline
7Fouls9
0Yellow Cards1
2Offsides2

Championship: Stoke City 1–1 Norwich

Stoke City and Norwich drew 1-1 in Championship on October 19, 2024.

Goals: A. Crnac (45'), M. Manhoef (45+6').

Norwich controlled possession (61%) and registered 12 shots to 14.

The match was played at bet365 Stadium in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.