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Stoke City vs Norwich — Championship 2018

Stoke City
Stoke City
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Norwich
Norwich
3/18/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 38bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 55+ matches

Stoke City39%
×Draw27%
Norwich34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stoke City
1.32
Norwich
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 60 away

creates per match

Stoke City
1.17
Norwich
1.22

allows per match

Stoke City
1.22
Norwich
1.47

finishing

Stoke City+0.18scores more
Norwich+0.11scores more

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Norwich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw
66%
Stoke City or Norwich
73%
Draw or Norwich
61%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+
18%
Norwich wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals
73%
Stoke City 2+ goals
38%
Stoke City 3+ goals
15%
Norwich 1+ goals
70%
Norwich 2+ goals
34%
Norwich 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)
53%
Norwich (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.22 · 55 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.47 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.17 + Norwich defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.32

Norwich attack 1.22 + Stoke City defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Stoke City scores more
39%
level
27%
Norwich scores more
34%

Stoke City at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28
A. GunnNorwichNorwich · G
9.5

Match Events

17'
Ben Wilmot
46'
A. Omobamidele← J. Sørensen
52'
Ben Pearson
69'
Marquinhos← C. Tzolis
76'
L. Baker← K. Hoever
77'
M. Núñez← T. Pukki
81'
S. McCallum← D. Giannoulis
89'
J. Tymon← J. Laurent

Possession

65%Stoke

Shots

14Stoke

Pass accuracy

58%Stoke

Statistics

StokeNorwich
Overview
65%Possession35%
14Total Shots8
8Corners3
13Fouls11
Shots
14Total Shots8
8On Target1
4Off Target4
2Blocked3
11Inside Box6
3Outside Box2
Passing
65%Possession35%
463Total Passes260
363Accurate Passes149
78%Pass Accuracy57%
Goalkeeping
1Saves9
Discipline
13Fouls11
2Yellow Cards0
1Offsides0

Championship: Stoke City 0–0 Norwich

Stoke City and Norwich drew 0-0 in Championship on March 18, 2023.

Stoke City controlled possession (65%) and registered 14 shots to 8.

The match was played at bet365 Stadium in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.