Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Stoke City vs Millwall — Championship 2025

Stoke City
Stoke City
Preview
19:45
Millwall
Millwall
11/25/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 17Bet365 Stadium
Big match
38%
Millwall
model favours
36%26%38%

Stoke City raise their game against the top half — 33% wins vs the upper half, only 32% vs the lower

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Stoke City36%
×Draw26%
Millwall38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stoke City
1.32
Millwall
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 23 away

creates per match

Stoke City
1.26
Millwall
1.43

allows per match

Stoke City
1.29
Millwall
1.38

finishing

Stoke City+1.17scores more
Millwall-0.21scores less

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Millwall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw
62%
Stoke City or Millwall
74%
Draw or Millwall
64%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+
16%
Millwall wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals
73%
Stoke City 2+ goals
38%
Stoke City 3+ goals
15%
Millwall 1+ goals
74%
Millwall 2+ goals
39%
Millwall 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)
49%
Millwall (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.38 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.26 + Millwall defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.32

Millwall attack 1.43 + Stoke City defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Stoke City scores more
36%
level
26%
Millwall scores more
38%

Millwall at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Stoke City sit 17, Millwall 3 in the table
  • Stoke City outscore their xG (1.4 vs 1.0 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Stoke City
Balanced
Millwall
Attack-heavy
52%Possession46%
77%Pass accuracy69%
10.8Shots13.0
1.04xGBiggest gap1.46
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Stoke CityMillwall

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

0
Stoke City
2
Draws
3
Millwall
Avg goals: 1.8BTTS: 40%
1–30–20–11–10–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
City
LLLLL
Millwall
LDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stoke City vs Millwall — Match Preview

Stoke City face Millwall on November 25, 2026 in this Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Stoke City host Millwall at Bet365 Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.